| NBA Eastern Conference Finals Preview: Heat-Pacers |
| By Kevin Cunningham May 22, 2013 www.collegesportswriters.com One could argue that the Indiana Pacers are a better team than they were last season. Sure, Danny Granger is out, but the emergence of everyone else on the team, mainly Paul George and Lance Stephenson, has made the Pacers as formidable as anybody. To open up the 2013 playoffs, the Pacers beat the Atlanta Hawks four games to two. The series made the Pacers like “iffy”, as they appeared to not be able to play up to their potential on the road. Taking a look at the Pacers after the Knicks series, and Indiana looks like they’re back and Lance Stephenson is the most intriguing part of, statistically, the best defense in the NBA. The Miami Heat are 45-3 in their last 48 games and are the best team in the NBA when Dwyane Wade is healthy. But, that’s the problem. So far in the 2013 playoffs, Wade’s health hasn’t made much of a difference. In the first series against the Bucks, the Heat dominated each game, ending the series as quick as possible. In the next round against the Bulls, speculation as to both teams’ health arose [Pun somewhat intended] and the grittiness of a Tom Thibodeau-led team and a game one win had people believing the Bulls actually had a chance in that series. They didn’t. Even with Wade not playing at 100 percent, the Heat went on to win the next four games. The magical question to this series is whether Wade is healthy or not. He isn’t, which is what will make this series an intriguing one to watch. The emergence of Pacers’ forward Lance Stephenson is the x-factor here. If Stephenson can play up to his potential and maintain his major disliking of the Heat, the Pacers have a legitimate shot in this series. Breaking these two teams down position by position can be interesting. However, it is what we know about both of these teams that can tell us a lot more about how these games will shake out. The Pacers have George Hill and D.J. Augustin controlling the ball a majority of the time. While both are good players, they aren’t the best ball handlers in the world. The Pacers are in the bottom-third of the league when it comes to total turnovers. The Heat will score off of these turnovers. That much is known. The Heat can play the passing lanes, press up on the Pacers’ guards, and make passing it into the post, where the Pacers have an advantage with forward David West and center Roy Hibbert, difficult. If the Heat do get a lot of easy, transition baskets and can create havoc for the Pacers, whether Heat’s guards Mario Chalmers or Norris Cole is defending the ball, the defending NBA champions could win this series in five games. While the Heat should be able to pressure the Pacers offensively, a five-game series here does not seem likely. The Heat are a team that loves to get to the line, as well as create open three-pointers for players not named LeBron James or Dwyane Wade. Heat’s head coach Erik Spoelstra said that he knows his team’s offense is running smoothly when Shane Battier is getting open looks from the corner. Whether they’re made or missed, as long as they’re uncontested shots, the offensive game plan is working. This raises a red flag to me. In the NBA, when you get a good three-point shooter open looks from the corner, it is safe to say that your offense is clicking. In the Heat’s case, I don’t believe it is. Battier is a decent three-point shooter, not a great one. The Heat can go on 12-2 stretches very quickly and thanks to their defense, these quick runs are what kill opposing teams. These runs usually occur when their shooters make the open three- pointers attempted. The Heat can struggle offensively when its shooters aren’t knocking down their shots. The Pacers, arguably the best defensive team in the NBA, can limit the Heat’s three- point field goal efficiency, which is why this series will be a grinding, tough six or seven-game series. The Pacers won the season series between these two teams two games to one. The Heat shot the ball effectively, but got trounced on the boards. With no chance for a second shot to go up for the Heat when they do miss, it makes a team feel like they have to maximize every possession they get. When shooters know that there is no chance for an offensive rebound, pressure builds into every shot they take. Against the Bulls this postseason, the Heat were thought to get annihilated on the boards as well. They ended up doing a great job, still getting outrebounded, but made it as close to 50-50 as possible. The Heat will get outrebounded probably each game in this series, but they will only lose a game by double digits if they can’t help themselves on the boards. This series will likely go six or seven games. Depending on Wade’s health, the amount of easy baskets the Heat can get and whether the defending champs can marginally help themselves on the glass, Spoelstra’s club won’t roll over the Pacers, but they will win the series. The only question is how many games it will take. Prediction Heat in 6 |
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